Saturday, May 29, 2010

the art of the backdown

house minority leader john boehner (R-OH) forecasting the 2010 midterm elections (apr 30):

inskeep: i understand you're saying it's difficult to model this election. but when you look across the 435 seats in the house of representatives, how many seats are in play right now?
boehner: well, typically, you are correct. there would be some limited number of seats in play. let me remind you that scott brown won the ted kennedy senate seat in massachusetts. if scott brown can win in massachusetts, there isn't a seat in america the republicans can't win. and what we're seeing every day is the playing field widen, widen beyond anything we've seen around here during my 20 years.
inskeep: how wide is the playing field now, as far as you're concerned?
boehner: at least 100 seats.
inskeep: you think there are 100 seats in the united states that could change hands one way or the other.
boehner: i do.

RNC political director gentry collins (may 11):

our scoring as of today has us looking at about 130 house seats as potentially competitive. ... just to be clear, i'm making no claim that we are going to pick up 130 house seats.

boehner (may 25):

whether we can get to a majority or not, is a steep climb. ... i do think that we have a reasonable chance.

house GOP deputy whip and NRCC recruiter kevin mccarthy (may 27):

mccarthy said that top GOPers have told him they hope to win in the neighborhood of 37 seats rather than 40 so they're in a stronger position to have good back-to-back cycles and win the WH in '12.

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